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Paul Hayden

The Trump Campaign is Real and Not a Conspiracy

December 14, 2015

Since his entry into the Republican presidential race in May, persistent rumors and conspiracy theories have dogged Donald Trump’s campaign among a sizable number of conservatives. Foremost of these are the ideas that Trump's campaign is not real and that he is, at best, a stalking horse for the GOP establishment drawing conservatives away from the likes of Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, or else, more sinisterly, that he is working to train-wreck the whole GOP for Hillary Clinton. 

For some, the conspiracy theory is that Trump will suck the life from Cruz, Paul, and Carson, or as he actually did the finished Perry, Walker and Jindal. Then, when Trump ends his fake campaign, these conservatives will be so weakened that a moderate Republican will be able to sail safely past the conservative plurality that clearly does not want another Romney, McCain or Dole. The more paranoid conservatives conspiracy theorists see Trump's run not as a front for moderate Republicans but as a secret and sinister plot to guarantee a Clinton win by instigating a GOP civil war (which he seems to have done quite successfully), the results of which will be an easy victory for Trump's conspired old friend Hillary.  

But Trump’s candidacy has been no boon for any of the establishment candidates, and even the pre-ordained Jeb Bush with his hundred million dollars of establishment GOP and Wall Street money has shown no ability to build a campaign that will sweep in after a Trump collapse and wrap up the nomination. To believe the more sinister plot, that Trump is a shill for Hillary, requires a belief that Trump is deep down inside some sort of true believer Leftist, part of a vast progressive cabal.

Though no one can confuse Trump’s core politics with those of the constitutional conservative Ted Cruz or the quasi-libertarian Rand Paul, his past dalliances with Democrats look more like local crony capitalism or simply the pragmatic business dealings of a man whose empire began and still thrives in many Blue States. Though a recent convert to some core conservative issues, there is nothing in Trump’s background, from his family and upbringing, his education, his past business dealings, or his political involvements to indicate that he is any kind of true believing progressive who would sacrifice his image and empire for a deep, dark, Clintonian plot.

Some see Donald Trump’s bombastic, unfiltered, rude and perhaps sometimes factually challenged speeches, tweets and sound bites as evidence that he is trying to paint the GOP, with himself as its de facto leader, as extremist and outside the mainstream. But to the dismay of critics in the GOP establishment, the mainstream media, and Democrats, no matter how politically incorrect his blurbs are, they are striking a chord with millions of Americans.

Trump’s supporters come from within the ranks of Republican voters, from independents, and most frighteningly for the mainstream media (MSM) and their DNC puppet masters, from among several key constituencies that the Democratic Party relies upon to form their winning coalition. Trump’s populism, his trade policies, his pledge to create millions of good jobs and his simple but oft-mocked slogan, ‘Make America Great Again,’ resonate with union voters, blue collar workers, and millions of Americans who often sit out elections because they believe there is no difference in the parties and that nothing will change regardless of who they vote for.

The media has aggressively pushed the ‘Trump is racist’ line, in recent weeks even crossing into using desperate terms like fascist and making overt comparisons to the Nazis. Despite this full throated attack from the media, and in spite of Trump’s own unfiltered political correctness that even many who agree with him are sometimes discomforted by, many black and Hispanic Americans are still attracted to the Trump message.

The traditional minority political organizations have predictably denounced him at every turn, but just as the GOP establishment no longer has the support of the majority of Republican voters, the Democrats may be losing some of the grip they have had on minority voters. Many legal immigrants and Hispanic Americans find illegal immigration just as unacceptable as Trump. They want to live in a country that is governed by the rule of law. They want to compete in a job market that is fair and rewards their hard work with wages not diminished by illegal workers.

Perhaps the most unseen danger, or at least the most unreported by the MSM, is the attraction of many black voters to Donald Trump.  With the endorsements of dozens of black church leaders he has shown that he is making a serious commitment to working with the black community and has a large network of supporters.

More unique and potentially catastrophic for his eventual Democrat opponent is Trump's appeal to younger black voters who are simply attracted to his success. Trump has built a brand and an image that is all about winning, and everyone loves a winner. Despite 50 years of liberal indoctrination in their schools, the propaganda of countless community organizers, and near total Democratic control and destruction of their communities, many young black people still have an instinctual human spirit to succeed personally, to make their communities better. As Gatorade convinced all of America to ‘Be Like Mike’ in the 1990's, Trumps message of unadulterated success is attracting a growing number of young blacks who want ‘Be Like Trump.’

Trump’s anti-illegal ‘Build a Wall’ rhetoric resonates as much with black workers who know that their wages and job opportunities are hurt by illegal aliens as it does with the white, blue collar Trump supporters whom the media has branded as nativist and racist. Will Donald Trump win the black vote? Certainly not, but successful Democrat presidential campaigns are built on a foundation of winning an overwhelming majority of the black vote.

In 2012, Obama won with 93% of the black vote nationwide, and even larger majorities in key cities and states. Even a 2 or 3 point swing in the black vote in cities like Cleveland, Philadelphia or Miami could be devastating for Democrats who need virtually every black vote to win battle ground states. Without the ‘first black president’ phenomenon of 2008 and 2012, Hillary Clinton already has a tougher challenge in turning out black voters. If Trump can bump the GOP's share of the black vote even a few points, Democrats have a real problem.

To the consternation of the Left, the media, and his party’s own traditional leaders, the Donald Trump phenomenon is real. It is a genuine populist movement the likes of which America has not seen for generations. The conspiracy theories are just that. If Trump implodes it won't be because of any secret blood oath he made with Karl Rove or Hillary Clinton but simply because he is racing his train far beyond what may or may not be the limits of the track ahead.

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Copyright ©2015

Stacy Stine is the President of the Arizona Cap Company, a business and political consultant, and the father of five fine young conservatives.  
Visit Stacy Stine's website at www.arizonacap.com