How Much Does A Trump Endorsement Mean Now?

Three key political races this year will demonstrate either the continuing or the eroding power of a Trump endorsement. 

The two most watched will be the U.S. Senate races in Michigan and Texas. In Michigan, Trump-endorsed Republican Mike Rogers, a Congressional veteran and unsuccessful Senate candidate in 2024, is running against the controversial, DSA-supported Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. In Texas, Trump-endorsed and state Attorney General Ken Paxton is running against leftist Christian candidate James Talarico. Current polls show that Rogers has a single-digit lead over El-Sayed, but Paxton is running a few points behind Talarico. Will Trump’s endorsement be enough to get these two candidates across the finish line? Or, will exposed political baggage, most notably relating to candidate Paxton, be too much to overcome?

In my adopted home state of Florida, this week’s primary election pits gubernatorial candidates Rep. Byron Donalds against the state’s lieutenant governor, Jay Collins. Although Donalds has Trump’s endorsement, Collins is running a spirited campaign to overtake him.

So, let’s see what possible baggage Rep. Donalds is dragging behind him. There were a couple of youthful indiscretions – a charge of marijuana possession when he was 18 which was dropped as part of a pre-trial “diversion” program, and a felony theft charge a few years later for allegedly attempting to defraud a bank by depositing a bad check. Donalds pleaded no contest in this case, and the records were sealed and, later, expunged. 

A more recent troubling allegation is that Donalds has engaged in insider trading while a member of Congress, with the Campaign Legal Center filing an ethics charge in 2024 for alleged violations of the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge, or STOCK Act. Donalds allegedly engaged in 100 stock trades (valued at $1.6 million) during 2022-23 that he failed to disclose under the STOCK Act. However, the Donalds campaign claims these trades were conducted by third parties on Donalds’s behalf. According to a fact-checking political website, to date there is no clear evidence of any action taken by either the Office of Congressional Ethics or the House Ethics Committee on this matter. Meaning that at least for now, the issue has gone away. 

All of that aside, it would appear that Donalds has the clear advantage, with Trump’s endorsement and, judging from his ubiquitous ads, plenty of campaign cash. However, he has refused to engage in debates with his Republican opponents for the gubernatorial nomination. This has infuriated his main rival, Lieutenant Governor Collins, who accuses Donalds of arrogantly believing he has the nomination and election sewn up and therefore sees no reason to participate in debates. 

A final note on Rep. Donalds – according to Congressional records, he’s missed 165 votes during his time in Congress, or a 5.7% absentee rate which compares unfavorably to the Congressional median figure of about 2%. His critics point to this figure as an example of both irresponsibility and hypocrisy on Donalds’s part, given that he’s made a big deal about “showing up” as part of his campaign for governor. To the average voter, is this a real concern that relates to his skipping primary debates, or another nothingburger?

Now, let’s take a quick look at Collins and see what’s under his hood.

Perhaps Collins’s biggest selling point is his highly decorated military service as an Army Special Forces medic. He sustained combat-related injuries that eventually led to a leg amputation, after which he still qualified for Special Forces service and continued to serve for several years prior to retiring. That alone demonstrates a lot of personal grit and guts that seemingly should serve Collins well in politics. However…….

After a brief time as a state senator, Governor Ron DeSantis selected Collins just last year for the number two slot in Florida upon the resignation of the previous lieutenant governor. But Collins almost immediately became embroiled in controversies. Perhaps the most alarming was the accusation by Collins, in a leaked text exchange with a Florida congressman, that DeSantis is autistic and has concealed this condition from the public. A possible fallout from this ill-advised claim is that Collins has clashed with senior members of DeSantis’s staff about their lack of support for his political ambitions, and DeSantis has refused to endorse any candidate until the primary election is over. This would seem strange given that DeSantis thought highly enough of Collins to hand-pick him as his number two, unless there is possible resentment on DeSantis’s part for the leak of Collins’s autism accusation. 

Unquestionably, if Collins has any hope of defeating Donalds, the governor’s endorsement is critical. Alleged social media posts by Collins’s wife promoting her husband and criticizing the DeSantis administration (since removed) have seemingly put the kibosh on any chance of a last-minute DeSantis endorsement before the primary election. This is in sharp contrast to Trump’s highly visible endorsement of Donalds.

Whoever wins the Republican nomination will probably be Florida’s next governor, so the upcoming primary election is in reality the critical point in the campaign. For all three of these critical elections, the question of the Trump endorsement’s power in light of the president’s fading popularity will be key.