The result of the Texas and Ohio primaries could very easily be a nomination process that is not decided until late August in Denver. Democrats doubtless hope that what comes out of their convention will be a pretty Denver Omelet. What is more likely is that the convention will look like some badly scrambled eggs.
Super-delegates will wave with each blow of the political winds and bow with each poll showing Hillary or Obama relatively more electable. These super-delegates constitute about eleven percent of all the delegates at the convention. They will not only be looking for an electable candidate, but also they will be trading support for leadership positions in Congress, for cabinet posts, and perhaps for federal judicial appointments. These sorts of messy details, which will look like bribes to most Americans, will be impossible to keep hidden. Rumors of backroom deals like this will be as damaging as the actual deals themselves. A convention largely decided by super-delegates will not look like "hope" or "change," but rather "graft" and "business as usual."
Hillary has moved to control credentialing at the convention, so there could be floor fights over seating delegates from Florida and Michigan. These two states have about nine percent of the delegates (excluding super-delegates), and seating them as Hillary delegates would be an enormous coup - as well as contrary to all sense of fair play. The consequences of not seating these delegates, when the mantra of Democrats has been "let every vote count" would be almost as bad. Worst of all, Florida and Michigan are large states and neither party has a lock on either state. If the Democrat carries Florida, the election is over. If McCain carries Michigan, it will be hard for the Democrat to win. Infuriating the Democrat organization in either state will be very costly in November for whoever the nominee turns out to be.
If Obama enters the convention with most of the popular vote and most of the delegates, and then Hillary wins through chicanery, then those millions who swooned over Obama, including many far-leftists who never will support Hillary because she voted for the war, will be incensed. That would not matter, except for one problem: Ralph Nader. His candidacy, which is to the left of Obama, will attract many of these loony leftists, if they feel that the "Clinton Establishment" has stolen the nomination from a truly anti-war Democrat like Obama. Complicating things for Hillary, McCain can run from the middle, leaving Hillary to run in that small patch between the far left and the middle, with only her famed charm and wit to save her in the general election.
If Hillary loses in a close convention contest, then two major constituencies of the Democrat Party - constituencies which could easily stay home or vote Republican - will be offended: Women and Hispanics. Women voters will have to feel a major letdown if Hillary is not nominated, particularly if she comes close to winning the nomination. There is no woman candidate on the horizon that might run for the nomination or win the nomination in the next few cycles. Hillary has played the "unfair playing field" card so many times that some women will actually believe that Mrs. Bill Clinton did not win the Democrat nomination "because she was a woman." The only protest these women will have is to stay home in November.
Hispanic voters have been slow to warm to Obama. Hispanics, not blacks, are the minority who they want to see dominate American politics. The Clinton family has strong ties to Hispanics; Obama does not. Moreover, McCain is the Republican that Hispanics like best. Those voters could easily swing to McCain in the general election.
What can Democrats do to prevent their convention from becoming scrambled eggs? Probably not much. Democrats have chosen to make themselves the party of the aggrieved. Feminists, blacks, Hispanics, Leftist loonies, and the like have run the Democrat Party for many years, with the iron yoke of totalitarian mind control growing each year. There is no equivalent to John McCain within the power structure of the Democrat Party. The nomination has been between gender-identified or race-identified clones of an identical nutty ideology. There are no "policy debates" in the Democrat nomination process. They are only vacuous appeals to hope, to 35 years of working for children, and all the rest. When cardboard cutouts like that are your candidates, you may want a Denver Omelet, but you will probably get scrambled eggs.