Understanding Global Warming

Part 1:  A Series Overview

July 5, 2001

(last revised August 19)

by Bob Webster

The purpose of this series is twofold:

1. To provide a better understanding of global warming in the context of historical natural climate trends and true atmospheric science, and,

2. To reveal the political nature of global warming hysteria and its proponents in the media, professional "junk" scientists who profit through baseless self-serving predictions of global disaster, and politicians who seek to deceive the public for their own gain.

As new data emerge concerning this topic, individual parts of this series will be updated. Dates of any revisions will be noted.

Beginning in the late 1980's we began hearing dire warnings of Global Warming from politicians, news media, and a relatively small number of scientists with little, if any, background in atmospheric sciences. Headlines and news stories are short on substance and long on rantings against mankind for burning fossil fuels which are portrayed as the demon in what is characterized as a global catastrophe in the making. Lately, warnings and dire predictions have reached a feverish pitch, possibly in an attempt to pressure the president and intimidate the public into acceptance of the flawed 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Many respected atmospheric scientists remain skeptical of the notion that global warming is the result of human activity and little concrete evidence exists to support the popular theory that seeks to explain global warming as the byproduct of human activity in the industrial age.

Were they responsible and not politically motivated, our news media would present information about global warming in context with an understanding of our atmosphere, weather, and climate. Yet there is no such contextual background for the shrill - and grossly misleading - reporting of this hot topic. This series is designed to provide a background of understanding that will enable the reader to develop an informed opinion of the nature of global warming and its causes.

The series Understanding Global Warming will consist of ten articles (this overview being the first):

Brief overviews of Parts 2-9 follow:

Part 2:  The Atmosphere & Weather - An informed discussion of global warming and its possible causes is predicated on a clear understanding of our atmosphere and weather. Atmospheric composition will be discussed revealing that CO₂ occurs naturally in our atmosphere (why is it referred to as a "pollutant?") and mankind's contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is a paltry 5%. Because CO₂ accounts for only 33 hundredths of one percent (0.033%) of our atmosphere (78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen), mankind's contribution is less than 0.002% of atmospheric gases with less than 1% of warming resulting from human activity. Weather cycles and why relatively short-term temperature changes cannot be used to predict climate changes will also be discussed.

Part 3:  Climate & Natural Warming/Cooling Cycles - Earth's climate history and natural warming and cooling cycles is an even more important topic that must be well understood if global warming is to be debated intelligently. Mankind has never known earth's normal climate; the earth has been locked in an ice era since the demise of the age of dinosaurs. Ice eras, ice epochs, and ice ages will be explained. Most people would be stunned to learn that no surface ice exists (even at the poles) during earth's normal climate (when we are not in some phase of an ice era). You will discover that "global warming" cycles have been routine in the earth's long climate history. No discussion of global warming can ignore historic warming and cooling cycles and their causes. These cycles long predate the existence of the earliest humans. Global warming melted glaciers that peaked during the last ice age 18,000 years ago. You will learn that around 4000 B.C. a 2,000 year period of global warming raised the average temperature by 5°F in many regions.

Part 4:  Warming - Greenhouse Effect & Nature - The greenhouse effect will be explained and natural causes of global warming cycles will be discussed further. You will learn that it is primarily water vapor (H₂O) and not carbon dioxide (CO₂) that is responsible for the greenhouse effect. The influence of oceans and continental drift on global climate will also be discussed. Are you aware that the world's population of termites produce many times the CO₂ as does burning fossil fuels? Do you believe our sun is perfectly stable and consistently delivers the same heat energy to earth?

Part 5:  Warming - Human Influence & Climate Simulation Models - There is no doubt that human activity influences both the concentrations of certain atmospheric gases and localized weather. The real question is whether these influences are sufficient to overwhelm natural climate determinants. Dire predictions of calamitous "global warming" are based on simplistic computer simulation models that do not possess the complexity required to accurately forecast future climate.

Part 6:  Uncertainty, The IPCC & "Political Science" - The enormous uncertainty in scientific climate change knowledge, climate simulation modeling, and the data that drive both is discussed. The "Precautionary Principle" is defined and its unscientific consequences discussed. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has spent years collecting and analyzing data on climate change and human activity that might influence such change. Unfortunately, the good work of this panel is buried in the depths of detailed reports, while summary reports seem to reflect a view so different that it suggests a political motivation to the summary writers' efforts. IPCC summary reports make no attempt to place these studies in context with normal climate changes beyond the past 1,000 years. Further, summary reports grossly overstate the contribution of CO₂ to the greenhouse effect and do not adequately consider other natural changes that influence production of CO₂ or global climate changes (e.g., solar variability). The IPCC's Summary Report of Working Group 1 is so focused on what appears to be a single-minded pursuit of human activity as a culprit in global warming that it is hard to take the work seriously.

Part 7:  Time Magazine, April 9, 2001 - Global Baloney - A classic example of how our "news" media engage in sensationalist nonsense rather than informing the public with a balanced presentation of fact. Among other items, three particularly egregious examples of how the April 9 issue of Time grossly distorted global warming and its effects will be discussed. A particularly obnoxious distortion was "Exhibit E" (pages 28 & 29) where maps illustrating "Coasts in Peril" from rising sea levels due to melting polar ice caps were shown opposite a picture of a Cape Hatteras lighthouse. The caption reads: "Cape Hatteras Lighthouse was 1,500 ft. from the North Carolina shoreline when it was built in 1870. By the late 1980s the ocean had crept to within 150 ft., and the lighthouse had to be moved to avoid collapse." The real reason "the ocean had crept to within 150 ft." of the lighthouse had nothing to do with global warming and "rising sea levels," rather, the natural erosion of shoreline due to actions of coastal storms was responsible. Such erosion is part of the natural "movement" (erosion balanced with growth) of barrier islands and shoreline resulting from the effects of wind, surf, tides and intense coastal storms. Furthermore, the polar ice caps are not melting! This example is only one of the three particularly gross distortions of global warming contained in that issue. How can we take seriously anything Time magazine reports?

Part 8:  Environmentalism's Trojan Horse - The roots of environmentalism will be explored with some surprising findings. How the Left's Fascist and Socialist International movements use the environmental issue to gain power and influence is explored. The importance of deceit and "junk science" as tools to persuade an unsuspecting public will be revealed. The Left has seized the environment as a perfect Trojan Horse from which they can miseducate children, deceive the public, and manipulate a willing media.

Part 9:  Series Summary & Conclusion - A series summary, some questions about other natural phenomena that imperil humanity, and, "where do we go from here?" The reader should have a better perspective on the nature of global warming, climate, and the political implications of socialists masquerading as environmentalists. The reader should also be able to better understand whether educators, politicians, news reporters, and scientists are properly informed and being honest in their discussions about real - or imagined - global warming.

It is my hope that after reading the material in this series you will have sufficient knowledge to speak out and correct any gross distortions that you encounter whenever global warming is discussed.

Suggested reading:

• Climate Change:  Guest Papers
• National Center for Policy Analysis - Global Warming Environmental Costs
• Humanity’s Impacts on Clouds: Could They Lead to Global Cooling?
• North American Temperature Trends -- Summary
• The Odden Ice Tongue of the Greenland Sea
• A Three-Thousand Year Record of South African Temperatures
• The Little Ice Age Climate in the Caribbean Sea
• Globalwarming or Globaloney? The Forgotten Case For Global Cooling
• Bush is Right on Global Warming
• Cool It Mr. President – Don’t swallow The Globaloney
• Fascism, Environmentalism, and the Third Way
• Environmentalism's Tainted Roots
• Ozone Depletion - A Closer Look
• Global Warming and Modern Environmentalism
• The conclusions of the Climate Change Science report by the National Research Council (NRC) are discussed by two participants in an interesting exchange of letters by Dr. Stephen Schneider and Dr. Richard Lindzen in The Cato Review of Business & Government, Letters section
• CO₂ Science Magazine
• GlobalWarming.org
• JunkScience.com
• Tech Central Station - Environment
• Greening Earth Society